Doncic-AD Trade: Do the Lakers or Mavs Pose a Bigger Threat to the Wolves in the West?
On Saturday, February 1, 2025, one of the biggest trades in NBA history occurred between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Dallas Mavericks. Luka Doncic, widely considered a top 3 player in the NBA, was sent to the Lakers, while Anthony Davis, one of the top all-around players, was sent to the Mavericks. In sum, the Lakers get: Doncic, Maxi Kleber, and Markieff Morris. The Mavericks get Davis, Max Christie, and the Lakers 2029 second round pick. The Utah Jazz, also included in the deal, come away with Jalen Hood-Schifino, the Lakers 2025 second-rounder, and the Mavericks 2025 second-round pick.
The 2025 Timberwolves are far from the frontrunner they were in the West last season. However, as the season nears the halfway point, I believe it is prudent (and interesting) to consider potential playoff matchups. This seems particularly apt given the Wolves season-ending series against the Mavericks last year. So, this trade begs the question: who (if either) of these teams will be a tougher matchup for the Wolves?
Let’s begin with the new-look Lakers, who have a projected lineup of Doncic, Austin Reaves, LeBron James, Rui Hachimura, and Jaxson Hayes. Coming off the bench, the Lakers have a few solid options. Rookie Dalton Knecht has provided a much-needed shooting threat to complement LeBron. However, his shooting percentage has dropped down to 35.5% from three. Expect to see that number, as well as his scoring, to rise dramatically with Doncic whipping passes to him. The bench also includes Jarred Vanderbilt, the former Timberwolf returning after a long absence due to injury, who is a highly versatile defender. Dorian Finney-Smith is another defensive-minded wing. The glaring weakness in this Lakers team, the frontcourt, is seen in its depth. Expect Maxi Kleber to be the main big man off the bench when Hayes is resting. Down the road, Christian Wood could step in here, too. Kleber, who at times in his career has been a capable scorer, is struggling mightily to put the ball in the hoop this year.
The Wolves have been most vulnerable of late against bigs that can score. To jog your memory, think Anthony Davis, Alperin Sengun of the Houston Rockets, or Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets. The Wolves also struggle against teams that play very tough defense and make a lot of threes (Boston Celtics, Oklahoma Thunder, Cleveland Cavaliers, Golden State Warriors, Memphis Grizzlies). This Lakers team is unlikely to fit the bill of either of these teams. As to the big man threat, Jaxson Hayes is possibly the worst starting center in the NBA. He will be a lob-threat with Doncic, and his athleticism will help, but he is very limited besides running on the break and receiving lobs. The big man depth is very poor, as well. As to the defensive-minded, three point shooting combination, I do not see the Lakers meeting the criteria. Doncic is a poor defender, and Reaves is average. LeBron, once one of the top defenders in the league, has made the business decision to conserve his energy for offense, and is often beat on back-doors and other simple plays. The bench will provide defensive intensity, but the Lakers lack the type of top-level defender/40% three-point shooter combination players that are so valuable in the current game. Despite all of this, I do not mean to dismiss a team with LeBron and Doncic on it, because oftentimes the playoffs are determined by the plays of superstars. Doncic has the ability to singlehandedly win multiples games in a playoff series, and LeBron does too. However, I do not see the Lakers as the biggest threat in the West, by a considerable margin.
Moving on to the Mavericks, whose lineup is a little bit more in flux. Kyrie Irving will run the point and Klay Thompson will accompany him in the backcourt. Beyond that, there are a few questions. It seems highly likely that Davis will slide into the power forward spot, leaving Daniel Gafford at the center spot. Davis reportedly had pleaded with the Lakers brass to add a bona fide center and allow him to play at the 4 spot. The last spot should be taken by P.J. Washington, a skilled and versatile two-way player, though there is a chance that Quentin Grimes, Max Christie, or Spencer Dinwiddie could take the spot. Derrick Lively, who had a highly impressive rookie season last year, is out until around the start of the playoffs and will provide a big boost.
Coming off the bench, Dinwiddie, Naji Marshall, Grimes, Jaden Hardy, and Dante Exum will take up most of the minutes. Since Doncic went down against the Wolves on Christmas Day, the Mavericks have gone 7-13. Notably, they still beat the Wolves without Doncic on Christmas and only lost by one on January 22. Irving is more than willing and able to step up as the top playmaker without Doncic. What remains to be seen is how Davis fits into this roster.
Going back to the two types of teams that cause damage to the Wolves, Dallas lines up more with the profile than the Lakers do. Davis has tormented this Wolves team. Rudy Gobert struggles to stay in front of him and defend his offensive arsenal. Julius Randle and Naz Reid have the strength to put a body on him, especially when Gobert is there to provide help defense. On the other end, Davis has been one of the tougher rim defenders the Wolves have played, which in years past has halted Anthony Edwards’ ability to drive. Yes, Edwards is a different offensive player than he was last year, and relies much more on shooting threes. Still, Davis’s interior defense is a problem. Additionally, Washington, Thompson, Gafford, Lively (when he returns), and Marshall are all great defenders. Not to mention, Thompson is one of the best three-point shooters of all time, Irving is a great shooter, and Christie and Washington have the ability to make threes in bunches. Dallas also has played a style that allows them to space the floor and get open threes. However, I am really curious to see what the loss of Doncic does to their offense. What is clear is that their defense will be significantly improved and a tough test for the Wolves offense.