Breaking Down the Knicks-KAT Trade

I would be remiss if I did not start this blog with a post about the biggest news of the offseason: the Wolves trading Karl-Anthony Towns to the New York Knicks for Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo, Keita Bates-Diop, and a future first-round pick.

Let’s start by looking at what the Wolves lose from the departure of Towns. Towns is a career 22.9 ppg scorer on 52.4% from the field and 39.8% from three. He has averaged 10.8 rebounds per game and chipped in 1.3 blocks per game. Many Wolves fans might also remember him for his 3.4 fouls per game, as he seemed to routinely lead the league in ill-advised fouls.

Beyond the numbers, Towns fit in nicely with Rudy Gobert in the two-big (no, not too big) offense last season. His ability to shoot at his size provided excellent spacing. As Anthony Edwards has blossomed into a bona fide superstar, Towns was one of the top secondary scorers in the league.

Although there are are many negative attributes to remember Towns by, I believe it is important to remember one positive: he was about as mature and graceful as possible in supporting and embracing Edwards while Edwards usurped his role as the top player on the team.

Despite Towns’s grace and loyalty to the organization, the Wolves front office looked at the situation through a business lense. Perhaps the biggest reason for the trade was that Towns was about to enter the first year of his four-year, $220 million contract. With Towns off the books, the team saves $25 million in luxury tax payments alone. More importantly, however, the team has more flexibility to avoid the second-apron under the new collective bargaining agreement. Just a reminder: teams in the second-apron are not allowed to sign players to the mid-level exception, sign players a team has released but is still paying, and make certain trades. In other words, the second-apron does more than just instill a tax on the owners (which many speculated could have played into the decision, given the Rodriguez-Lore financial difficulties), it severely hampers the ability of the front office to structure the roster and make changes.

Moving on to look at what the Wolves got, I’ll start by looking at Julius Randle. Randle has averaged 19.1 ppg in his career on 47% field-goal and 33.3% from three-point land. He has also averaged 9.4 rebounds per game. At first glance, he appears to just be a tick behind Towns in terms of overall production. However, differences between the two are rampant. For one, Towns loves to hover by the three-point line, and his offensive moves, though extensive, generally consisted of a single pump-fake at the three-point line followed by a (very graceful for a 7-footer) dribble-drive to the hoop. Randle, on the other hand, prefers to catch the ball in the high post and methodically back his defender down or lull them to sleep, engaging in a series of jab moves and eventually catching the defender off balance. Randle is less efficient than Towns, there is no question, but he is still a highly capable second scorer behind Edwards. It remains to be seen how he can work in the post alongside Gobert, however, who can be difficult to work with on offense.

There have been concerns about Randle’s ability to perform in the playoffs, where his production has taken a significant hit. Although there may be some merit to this thought, I am more inclined to believe that this deficiency can be attributed to the general exhaustion and wear and tear that comes about playing for a Tom Thibodeau-coached team. Especially with Naz Reid pushing hard for Randle’s minutes, look to see Randle fresher come playoff time for this Wolves team than he has been with the Knicks in years past.

One thing that will certainly be welcome is Randle’s toughness and grit. Although this might be an overlooked part of his character, I believe that having a hard-nosed player like Randle is key to maintaining intensity throughout the long NBA season. There was not a player I could identify from last year’s Wolves roster that has that same level of intensity. While Towns is a more skilled and, overall, a better player than Randle, Randle certainly has Towns beat in terms of toughness. It will be satisfying to watch Randle manhandle opposing big men down low and scrap for rebounds.

The second piece of this trade, and apparently the piece the Wolves were holding out for since the Knicks broached the idea of the trade around the time of the draft, is Donte DiVincenzo. DiVincenzo has averaged 10.6 ppg in his career, but had a career year last season averaging 15.5 ppg on 40.1% from three. He is a surefire catch-and-shoot player who knows how to move without the ball. He figures to slide in as one of the first players off the bench, and will likely hold the title of top three-point shooter on the team (unless Mike Conley has something to say about it). For Wolves fans, like this writer, who were celebrating the pure catch-and-shoot prowess of fellow newcomer Joe Ingles, DiVincenzo is like getting a second, and even bigger, Christmas present in January.

The last player in the trade, Keita Bates-Diop, is unlikely to contribute significantly to this deep Wolves team. And the first-round pick the Wolves received, which is from the Detroit Pistons, is highly protected. Still, it gives the Wolves a little bit of draft capital back after they leveraged most of their future picks in the trade that brought in Gobert.

It is impossible to say who won or lost the trade at this point, though I welcome that discourse in the comments. However, it is clear that Randle is a downgrade from Towns. DiVincenzo should help cover the gap in production. What the front office really saw as the win of this trade is the flexibility. With Reid likely to decline his player option next season (meaning the Wolves would need to offer him much more than the extremely team-friendly deal on the table right now), Gobert likely to opt-in to his massive deal, and Edwards and McDaniels owed big pay days, the Wolves were going to be extremely hamstrung for the foreseeable future. It will be interesting to see what the Wolves do about Randle’s expiring contract, though. Overall, I think Wolves President Tim Connelly saw this as a slight downgrade in star power but an upgrade in depth, all while increasing flexibility for the future as the team builds around Edwards. I’m inclined to agree with that assessment.

Whether or not Towns will go down as the best-shooting big man of all time remains to be seen. But he should be remembered for carrying the mantle of this Wolves team though some tough times.